UFC 129 Prelim Breakdown


Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock lately, you all know that UFC 129 is going down this weekend in Toronto, ON. Out of the 12 fights, 10 bouts feature Canadian talent – including both the Title Fights as Georges St-Pierre (21-2) defends his Welterweight title against Jake Shields (26-4) and  Mark Hominick (20-8) taking on Jose Aldo (18-1) for the Featherweight strap.

This is part 1 of a 2 part UFC 129 breakdown featuring predictions from Top MMA News staff. You can check out Keith Grienke and Don Wilson’s picks in the latest Top MMA News radio podcast.

Here we go!

John Makdessi (8-0) vs. Kyle Watson (13-6)

Derek: This is the classic stand-up vs ground fighter in this bout. Makdessi has the clear advantage on the feet while Watson wrestling makes him a threat. Makdessi was dominate in his debut and should continue to do so.
Makdessi via TKO in Round 2

Robert: Watson is the fighter with the better over skills in this match up.
Watson via KO in Round 2

Cody R: Both have had one fight in the Octagon where they outstruck their espective opponents by a wide margin. Watson should be looking to take the fight to the ground however Makdessi will be able to defend and pick Watson apart en route to the judges nod.
Makdessi via Decision

Sebastien: I usually pick the grappler in a grappler versus striker matchup but I will go with Makdessi due to a good sprawl and willingness to take risks on the feet. The Bull by second round TKO.
Makdessi via TKO in Round 2


Jason MacDonald (photo by Jason Bouwmeester)

Jason MacDonald (24-14) vs. Ryan Jensen (15-7)

Derek: I like The Athletic in this fight the only question I have is cage rust and how well the leg is healed. We have seen too many fighters come back from an injury to early but MacDonald is smart with his body. I think he will give Jensen problems on the ground.
MacDonald via submission in Round 3

Robert: Jason MacDonald will put a triangle choke on Ryan Jensen for a win in the 2nd round. MacDonald will be looking to show the UFC that he belongs in the league.
MacDonald via submission in Round 2

Cody R: The Athlete has had a rough time in the Octagon over the last few years including three straight losses as well as a serious leg injury in his last bout. MacDonald should be able to reverse his fortunes in this bout and will submit Jensen early via choke.
MacDonald via Submission in Round 1

Sebastien: MacDonald’s reach, solid ground game and improved boxing will be too much for Jensen to handle. I predict a Third round TKO victory for MacDonald as he mounts his opponent and ground and pounds him into oblivion.
MacDonald via TKO in Round 3


Ivan Menjivar (21-8) vs. Charlie Valencia (12-6)

Derek: This fight should be Menjivar’s to win. He has the better skills on paper but Valencia could surprise some people. Menjivar dropping down to bantamweight will have a big size advantage.
Menjivar via KO in Round 1

Robert: Ivan Menjivar will defeat Charlie Valencia by TKO in 3rd round. Menjivar will have his hands full until Valencia tanks halfway threw the 3rd round.
Menjivar via TKO in Round 3

Cody R: Menjivar dropped a close split decision in his last bout in hi second fight after a lengthy layoff, Valencia however has been fighting some of the top bantamweights the WEC had to offer in the same time frame and should be able to pull off the decision win.
Valencia via Decision

Sebastien: Menjivar’s been in there with some of the best and while I don’t want to discount Valencia’s skills, I don’t believe the Millenia MMA fighter can give the Pride of El Salvador what he hasn’t already seen. Menjivar by third round leg lock.
Menjivar via submission in Round 3


Claude Patrick

Claude Patrick (13-1) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-1)

Derek: Patrick may have someone who can give him a fight on the ground for a change but his stand up is the advantage for him both for giving and taking a punch.
Patrick via TKO in Round 2

Robert: Claude Patrick will defeat Daniel Roberts judges unanimous decision after 3 rounds. This fight will be action packed and toe to toe from start to finish with Patrick slightly out scoring Roberts in each round.
Patrick via Unanimous Decision

Cody R: Patrick should be able to get the fight to the ground and get any position he wants. The Prince will reign supreme and finish Roberts via choke in the second round.
Patrick via Submission in Round 2

Sebastien: This fight is proof of the depth of this event since it truly should be on the main card.  These guys are so evenly matched up that it’s hard to make a pick. I will go with Claude Patrick by split decision. I actually flipped a coin in case you were wondering.
Patrick via Split Decision.


Yves Jabouin (15-6) vs. Pablo Garza (10-1)

Derek: While Garza may be coming off a high after winning Knockout of the Night at TUF finale in December, he will be in for a rude awakening when he faces Jabouin. His strike will be too strong.
Jabouin via KO in Round 1

Robert: Pablo Garza will tap or nap Yves Jabouin with a rear naked or D’Arce choke in the 3rd round. Garza will have a bit more in the tank and will be able to slip a arm around the throat of Jabouin.
Garza vis submission in Round 3

Cody R: Look for Jabouin to return to his early days and add another explosive knockout to his resume giving him the early upset victory.
Jabouin via KO in Round 1

Sebastien: I’m always excited when the Tiger is on a card and in this fight, he’ll be facing a tough opponent in Garza. Watch for Jabouin to overwhelm his lankier opponent and launch a rocket of a right hand to end the fight in the first round.
Jabouin via (T)KO in Round 1


Sean Pierson (11-4) vs. Jake Ellenberger (24-5)

Derek: I see this more of a boxing match because I see both will be trading blows. Pierson didn’t have to change his game plan because Foster and Ellenberger is the same style fighter. Bad mistake for Ellenberger.
Pierson via Decision

Robert: Jake Ellenberger will cut Sean Pierson in the 3rd round leading to a Doctor stoppage. Ellenberger has some nasty elbows.
Ellenberger via Doctor stoppage in Round 3

Cody B: Pierson showed a lot of discipline in his fight against Riddle. I see Pierson picking Ellenberger apart standing up and defending most of Jake’s takedown attempts.
Pierson via Unanimous Decision

Cody R: Pierson looked very impressive in his UFC debut however Ellenberger is a huge step up in competition and should be able to finish Pierson quickly via strikes.
Ellenberger via TKO in Round 1

Sebastien: Every ounce of my Canadian blood wants to see Pierson walk away with a victory in this historical event. His story would make a perfect script for the movies. But Hollywood this is not. I see Ellenberger pressuring Pierson enough to TKO him in the third. Sorry guys.
Ellenberger via TKO in Round 3


Rory MacDonald (10-1) vs. Nate Diaz (13-6)

Rory MacDonald and Team Toshido

Derek: This is my early bet for fight of the night. While I like Diaz his anger can get the best of him and I see it happening again.
MacDonald via Decision

Robert: Rory MacDonald will win over Nate Diaz after 3 rounds unanimous decision. I like the match up. It is a real coin flipper. MacDonald came up heads.
MacDonald via Unanimous Decision

Cody B: I’ll call this Jon Jones style. Rory is ‘Too Big, Too Fast, Too New School’ for Diaz.
MacDonald via Unanimous Decision

Cody R: If you weren’t a believer in MacDonald after seeing him completely dominate Carlos Condit for the better part of three rounds you will be after this fight. Ultimately Condit was able to complete one of the greatest comebacks of the year and finish MacDonald with only seconds left in the fight however, Rory will not make the same mistake twice and should batter Nate Diaz for three rounds, earning a shutout on the judges scorecards.
MacDonald via Decision

Sebastien: Those who aren’t excited by this tilt should stick to harlequin romance novels and red wine. Rory has a tough one ahead of him but the kid’s A game is enough to give Carlos Condit fits. Diaz won’t be able to physically measure up to MacDonald despite his technical finesse and the Canadian will surprise us with a split decision victory in a barn burning back and forth battle.
MacDonald via Split Decision


And there you have it – looks like the Canadians will fare well at UFC 129, but what else did you expect? Stay tuned for Round 2 of our UFC 129 predictions as we look at the main card later today. Be sure to head over to the forum and toss in your 2 cents there…

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