Cageplay’s Ultimate Fight Night 17 Breakdown


UFN 17

One week after the GSP vs BJ Penn card, the UFC is back at it again.  For the third time in four weeks, the UFC will put on a show.  This weekend, Ultimate Fight Night returns with Joe Lauzon facing Jeremy Stephens in the headlining bout.  This event is being held in the Sun Dome in Flordia and will be broadcast live this Saturday, February 7 on Spike TV.

Like many UFN cards, this one is a tough card to predict winners as the combatants are well matched.  You can make your own predictions on Ultimate Fight Night 17 at to win prizes !

Joe Lauzon vs Jeremy Stephens
What is with Lauzon opponents?  Chris Horodecki could not fight Dan Lauzon due to injury and Hermes Franca had to pull out of his fight with Joe Lauzon.    Stephens last beat Rafael dos Anjos with a highlight reel knockout.  Joe Lauzon last beat Kyle Bradley and is a solid 4-1 in the UFC.  Jeremy Stephens is stepping up on short notice here and that will hurt him.  Lauzon will use his superior positioning to beat Stephens on the ground.

  • Cageplay’s Pick: Joe Lauzon by TKO (Ground n Pound) Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Joe Lauzon 86%
  • Lauzon -200, Stephens +150

Josh Neer vs. Mac Danzig
Mac Danzig seems real focused coming off of his loss to Clay Guida and is training hard at Xtreme Couture.  Josh Neer seems unfocused.  Recently, he was arrested after a high speed car chase where he hit a police car.  Neer was intoxicated at the time.  Regardless of his guilt or innocence, Neer obviously was drinking heavily when he should have been training for this fight.  I think Danzig, who is treating this as a must win fight, will have won this fight in training camp and it will show in the cage – especially in rounds 2 and 3 (if it gets to round 3).

  • Cageplay’s Pick: Danzig Submission Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Danzig 80%
  • Danzig -120, Neer -120

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnik
Cain Velasquez is a beast wrestler.  Stojnik is making his debut in the UFC after fighting in Holland with his Golden Glory team.  Stojnik’s only chance is to keep Velasquez from taking him down.  That is not going to happen.

  • Cageplay’s Pick: Velasquez TKO (GNP) Round 1
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Velasquez 95%
  • Velasquez -625, Stojnik +350

Dan Miller vs. Jake Rosholt
Jake Rosholt walked through Nissen Osterneck’s punches like he was the Terminator on his way to a second round TKO last fight.  Dan Miller is a big step up for Rosholt.  Miller has won nine fights in a row including victories over Matt Horwich and John Howard.   Miller is faster on his feet and on the ground than Rosholt although Rosholt does have a wrestling advantage.  Unless Rosholt grounds ‘n pounds an early victory, Miller will take this one.

  • Cageplay’s Pick: Miller by Decision
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Miller 71%
  • Miller -200, Rosholt +150

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Rob Emerson
An interesting matchup.  Emerson has some great hands and knocked out Manny Gamburyan in less than a minute.  Pellegrino was picking Diaz apart until he got caught in a submission in the second round.  In his last fight, Pellegrino defeated Thiago Tavares.  This fight will start out standing but Pellegrino is experienced enough to take this to the ground if he gets in trouble on his feet.  On the ground is where “Batman” has his advantage, especially since training with WEC champion Miguel Torres, and will dominate the fight.

  • Cageplay’s Pick: Pellegrino TKO Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Pelligrino 73%
  • Pellegrino -200, Emerson +150

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One Response to “ Cageplay’s Ultimate Fight Night 17 Breakdown ”

  1. I think Joe Lauzon will win too, but everyone is calling for it to end in round 2. The odds aren’t that far spread Lauzon (-190) Stephens (+155). I think it will last longer than 2 rounds.

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