Cageplay’s UFC 94 GSP vs Penn Breakdown

By: UFC 94 Breakdown

Its finally here !  Georges St. Pierre versus BJ Penn has been hyped for months on the TV and the Internet and now fans finally get to watch it this Saturday, January 31.

As per usual lately, Cageplay is letting one of its top Cageplayers to make their predictions public on the news site.  The UFC 94 breakdown is by Mike MacDonald.  Mike has been on a tear lately – he won The Ultimate Fighter 8 Finale event, finished third in UFC 92, sixth at UFC 93, and third at Sunday’s WEC event !!!  Mike is third in 2009 with 75% successful prediction rating.  Maybe if I followed his advice, I would not have lost $5 at betting on Vladimir Matyushenko.

Just remember, Mike has won prizes winning Cageplay events and you can too!  You just need to sign up and enter your picks for this Saturday’s fights and you can win Gorilla Gear.

Georges St. Pierre vs BJ Penn
Look for GSP to have a similar gameplan to when he fought Matt Serra in their  rematch. GSP will strike to setup the takedown and I do not see Penn stopping GSP’s takedowns. Koscheck and Fitch could not stop GSP from taking them down so I do not see BJ Penn doing anything different. Can BJ sub GSP? I do not think so as GSP has a very strong top game. I expect GSP to take BJ down every round and wear BJ out in 5 rounds.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: GSP by Decision
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): GSP 82%
  • GSP -189,  BJ Penn +137

Thiago Silva vs Lyoto Machida
Thiago Silva is a very good fighter in the 205 division but I just feel Machida is on the top ten when it comes to pound for pound rankings. Machida rarely gets hit and has better wrestling than Silva. I expect Silva to come at him throwing looping hooks and Machida will hit him with a straight left right down the middle putting Silva down. Machida will be looking to really impress Dana White so he can get a title shot vs Rashad Evans.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Machida TKO Round 1
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Machida 70%
  • Machida -357, Silva +225

Jon Jones vs Stephan Bonnar
Jon Jones might be the future at 205 but Bonnar will prove to be too much for Jones at this point in his career. Bonnar will have the advantage striking and that will lead to Jones to trying to take Bonnar down.  When this happens, I think Bonnar will slap on a kimura for the victory.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Bonnar by Submission Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Bonnar 85%
  • Bonnar -200, Jones +150

Karo Parisyan vs Dong Hyun Kim

I do not see any advantages that Karo may have coming into this fight. His Judo will not be better than Kim’s and Kim has the reach advantage on the feet and that is where I see this fight taking place. Kim will pick Karo apart and win the decision.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Kim by Decision
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Parisyan 83%
  • Parisyan -357, Kim +225

Nate Diaz vs Clay Guida

This could be Fight of the Night. Both guys are very exciting fighters and have great cardio. I expect Diaz to get the better standing and as a result Guido will look for a takedown and Diaz will get another submission win in the UFC. Winner is fairly close to a title shot.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Diaz by Submission Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Guida 53%
  • Diaz -125, Guida -111

Jon Fitch vs Akihiro Gono

Fitch is on another level than Gono. Gono will show his toughness but it will not be enough to last 2 full rounds with Fitch.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Fitch TKO late Round 2
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Fitch 97%
  • Fitch -625, Gono -350

Chris Wilson vs John Howard

Chris Wilson is a very talented striker and he impressed me against John Fitch. Wilson will drop Howard and finish with some ground a pound for the victory.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Wilson TKO Round 1
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Wilson 91%
  • Wilson -400, Howard +250

Matt Arroyo vs Dan Kramer

Arroyo will get the submission early it is as simple as that.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Arroyo by Submission early Round 1
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Arroyo 83%
  • Arroyo -200, Kramer +150

Manny Gamburyan vs Thiago Tavares

I think this could steal FOTN. Thiago Tavares is a little overhyped he had a hard time beating Omigawa and Gamburyan is a better version is Omigawa. I expect Manny to take this fight to the floor and win a decision.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: Gamburyan by Decision
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): Tavares 72%
  • Tavares -139, Gamburyan +100

Jake O’Brien vs Christian Wellisch

Jake O’Brien will take him down enough to win a decision. I think he might even have an advantage on the feet if he finally lets his hands go.

  • Mike MacDonald’s Pick: O’Brien by Decision
  • Cageplay Readers’ Pick (so far): O’Brien 83%
  • O’Brien -303, Wellisch +200

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6 Responses to “ Cageplay’s UFC 94 GSP vs Penn Breakdown ”

  1. Nice breakdown Mike. You really went against the Cageplayer majority picking Kim and Gamburyan. I think picks like these are why everyone else is looking up at you in the Cageplay standings!

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  2. Jason says:

    Nice job, I also agree with your prediction on Kim vs Parisyan. Karo has been acting too goofy lately to make him a solid pick in my opinion.

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  3. Joe says:

    Kim’s +225, what’s stopping you Jason?

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  4. Sean Quinn says:

    Parsnippian is going down like the Titanic, but with less DiCaprio.

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  5. Keith says:

    I put $10 on Kim. $32.50 if he wins.

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  6. Kim is definately the dog of the night.

    I put some Cageplay bucks on him for sure.

    Skill-wise Karo is fine, it’s his mental state of mind and how that will affect his skills that is the difference.

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