Ultimate Fight Night 15 – Cageplay.com Breakdown

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The UFC will be holding its Ultimate Fight Night card in the Omaha Civic Auditorium.  The 15th edition of UFN will serve as a lead-in on Spike TV for the debut of The Ultimate Fighter 8 later that evening.  As usual, the UFN card is heavily sprinkled with former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) graduates, including:  TUF 5 winner –  Nate Diaz, TUF 6 winner – Mac Danzig, TUF 3 finalist – Ed Herman, and Joe Lauzon from TUF 5.  The following are Cageplay.com’s predictions – make sure you make your predictions at Cageplay.com.

Nate Diaz (9-2) vs. Josh Neer (24-6-1)

TUF 5 winner, Nate Diaz has been very successful submitting people from his back as almost 78% of his victories have come via submission.  In fact, he is on a four fight winning streak where he has finished each of his last three opponents with a submission.  Like Rocky Balboa, Diaz seems to use a rope-a-dope style where he starts slow and receives a ton of damage.  Unlike Rocky, he does not knock his opponent out, he chokes them out.

Josh “The Dentist” Neer is has fought his way back to the UFC at 155 after previously fighting at Welterweight.  Now on a three fight winning streak, Neer is coming off his UFC debut at lightweight where he beat Din Thomas.  Look for Neer to try to keep this fight with Diaz standing or he will risk being submitted.  Look for Neer to win a decision if he can keep it standing.

Cageplay.com Prediction: Once again, look for Nate Diaz to lose the stand up battle.  However, Diaz will find a loose limb at some time in the bout and submit Neer just as his brother Nick did in 2006.

Mac Danzig (19-4-1) vs. Clay Guida (23-6)

After losing to “Mach” Sakurai in Pride, Danzig came back to win The Ultimate Fighter 6 title.  Danzig is a very technical fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight may end up.  His last fight, a win against Mark Bocek, shows that Danzig is very effective against grapplers like Guida.

Clay Guida is an exciting fighter to watch, but is only .500 in the UFC.  A great grappler with excellent scrambling ability, Guida will look to take this to the ground and grind out a victory.

Cageplay.com Prediction: Being a vegan in farm country with no place to eat, look for Danzig to have that extra edge !  All kidding aside, Guida will not be able to contain Danzig and control this fight.  Danzig will prove too technical for Guida, winning the stand up war, and winning a decision.

Houston Alexander (8-3-1 ) vs. Eric Schafer (11-3-2)

“Nebraska is in the house’ when Houston Alexander fights and he has home field advantage for this fight.  Houston has the big right hand (just ask Keith Jardine) and he has a lot of power.  Houston will come out swinging and will try to use his strength and sprawl to keep this off the ground where he is weaker than Schafer. If he cannot keep this off the ground, then expect Alexander to receive his third loss in a row.

Eric “Red” Schafer is a submission specialist and has won two thirds of his fights via submission.  Unfortunately, he is only 1-2 in the UFC where he has lost to strikers, Mike Bisping and Stephan Bonner.  Will Red be able to take down the stronger Houston Alexander?  That will be the key to this fight.

Cageplay.com Prediction: This is a tough call between two of the UFC’s lower ranked light-heavyweights however if cageplay.com must make a pick then Eric Schafer will submit the “Assassin” Houston Alexander after avoiding that big right hand of Houston’s.  As much as the crowd will be behind their native son, Houston does not have the skill to beat Schafer and avoid his third loss.

Alan Belcher (11-4) vs. Ed Herman (16-5)

Ed Herman is a TUF 3 finalist and has had a rocky road in the UFC.  After losing his first two UFC fights, he reeled off three wins before losing to the talented Demian Maia. Herman has been in much higher profile fights than Belcher and has great wrestling and KO power as shown against Joe Doerksen.

Like Herman, Belcher has lost to Kendall Grove.  In fact, Belcher loses to most of the top fighters he has faced and only has notable wins against C-level fighters – Sean Salmon and Kalib Starnes.  The victory over Starnes showcased Belcher’s potent elbows where he cut up Starnes and got the stoppage.

Cageplay.com Prediction: Look for Herman to get the win over Belcher via Submission.

Quick Hits:

Kyle Bradley (13-5-1) vs. Joe Lauzon (15-4) – JLau will rebound from his loss to KenFlo with a Rear Naked Choke victory.

Wilson Gouveia (10-5) vs. Ryan Jensen (13-4) – Gouveia drops to middleweight and will also drop Jensen with a KO.

Drew McFedries (7-3) vs Mike Massenzio (10-2) – Look for McFedries to get back on the winning track with a TKO of Massenzio.

Jason Brilz (15-1-1) vs. Brad Morris (10-3) – Unknown fighter Jason Brilz will dominate Brad Morris and prove he belonged in the UFC long ago.  He was offered a shot on TUF 1 and turned the UFC down as he did not want to leave his family behind.  A local of Omaha, Brilz is a solid grappler and will submit Morris early.  A soft-spoken fighter, Brilz flips a switch when the cage door closes.

Rob Kimmons (21-3) vs. Dan Miller( 8-1-1) – Although Kimmons does have more experience than Miller, Miller has had higher profile fights than this – beating Ryan McGivern via kneebar in the IFL.  Kimmons has lost to the B-level fighters that he has faced – Riggs, Eastman, and Jensen.  Miller by Decision.

Alessio Sakara (16-7-1) vs. Joe Vedepo (7-1) – Its surprising to see Sakara still in the UFC.  They must love his Round 1 KOs that fit in so well between main card matches.  Sakara’s last six matches (2-4) have all ended in the first round.  Not breaking with tradition, the more experienced Sakara will KO Vedeo in his UFC debut.

Make sure you make your free fantasy MMA picks for Ultimate Fight Night 15 at your Fantasy MMA Authority – CagePlay.com. Free prizes are available to winners every event.

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